✦ iProDecisions Research Series | Issue 01 of 06 · The Autonomous Agent Economy — Interactive Companion · Read the Full Report →

iProDecisions Research Series· Issue 01 — The Autonomous Agent Economy You are here · Issue 02 — The Agentic Workforce · Issue 03 — Coming Soon

Research Mind Map

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Central thesis

ACSM layers

Scenarios

Stakeholders

Frameworks

Key players

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The mind map shows the full conceptual architecture of the Autonomous Agent Economy. Central thesis connects to the five ACSM layers, three 2030 scenarios, six stakeholder groups, EED and ACML frameworks. Click any node to see key data, source, and strategic context.

Quick Reference

All core numbers, frameworks, quotes, and strategic window data for briefings and presentations.

The Core Numbers

Infrastructure Gap Figures

836,120×ICP avg TPS vs. Stripe 1B TPS target

4,768×ICP theoretical max vs. Stripe 1B TPS

83×Bear Case floor — minimum gap regardless of scenario

$650BTotal ACSM TAM across 5 layers by 2030

23,611EPS baseline — 1M agents × 1 wf/hr × 85 micro-events

ACSM Framework · Five Layers

$650B Est. TAM · Composability is the moat

L1 $180B Agent Execution — Stripe ACP, OpenAI. Winner-take-most. Now.

L2 $95B Off-Chain Mesh — State channels. Oligopolistic. 2025–26.

L3 $120B Rollup/Netting — ZK rollups. Stripe Tempo. Duopolistic.

L4 $85B Risk/Compliance — Smart contract AML/KYC. GENIUS Act + MiCA.

L5 $170B Finality Anchor — ICP/Solana/ETH. 2–3 dominant by 2030.

Three Scenarios · 2030

Bear Case Floor Has Permanently Moved

55%Base Case1M+ TPS · Ordered transition

30%Bull Case1B+ TPS · Hypergrowth break

15%Bear Case100K+ TPS · Still 83× above today

Original Frameworks · iProDecisions Research

Three Original Frameworks

ACSM Five composable infrastructure layers. $650B total TAM. Composability is the moat.

ACML Five maturity stages: Evaluate → Pilot → Deploy → Scale → Native. Stage 3 = 2025–27 window.

EED Economic Event Density. Baseline: 23,611 EPS. Stage 4: 23.6M EPS.

Verbatim Quotes · Stripe Annual Letter 2025

Patrick & John Collison

"Agents will most likely soon be responsible for most internet transactions."

"Meeting AI demands will likely require a horizontal architecture of multiple, interacting chains."

"1M or even 1B TPS"

Stripe Annual Letter 2025 · Feb 25, 2026

Strategic Window · Time-Critical

Act in 2025–2027

L1/L2 decisions now are path-dependent for 10–15 years

EU AI Act August 2026 — L4 compliance forcing function

GENIUS Act (July 2025) + MiCA (Dec 2024) — legal framework live now

L4 compliance retrofit at Stage 4 costs 3–5× vs. building at Stage 3

Bear Case still demands 83× infrastructure — pessimism requires re-architecture

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